A masterclass in failure: how the Democrats forgot to listen to people and the data
The greatest lessons come from failure - and it's better when someone else is doing the failing.
If failure is the greatest teacher, the Democrats have sure given us a masterclass on how to fail at strategy, tactics and just plain understanding data.
In a nutshell: if you don’t meet people where they are, don’t be surprised when they leave you behind.
David Shor’s team at Blue Rose Research did listen to the people. They ran 26 million interviews in 2024 - so many that they bulldozed the usual polling bias (you know, only weirdos enjoy being polled).
Watch him break it down on The Ezra Klein Show. It’s a testament to the power of data. The graphs are crisp and the forecast, spot on. So many mistakes could’ve been avoided if the Democrats had just listened.
Here are three that should matter to anyone in the business of changing minds.
MISTAKE 1 – OVERLOOKING THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDE
Graph 1 shows the explosion of the political gender gap among young people. A likely reason? Social media content pushed to young men leans conservative, feeding anger, frustration, and a sense of exclusion. They feel ignored, shut out, disenfranchised; a trend happening in other countries too, Shor says.
So what did Democrats do? Either ignored them or made them feel like the villains.
MISTAKE 2 – TALKING ABOUT THE WRONG PROBLEMS
Graph 2 lays it out clearly - what voters actually cared about vs which party they trusted to handle it.
The top four issues were cost of living, the economy, inflation, and government spending. And Republicans had the upper hand on all of them.
If you’re getting beaten on the things that matter most, you have two choices: either change what people care about (good luck with that) or prove you can do a better job on those issues. That’s where advertising comes in.
MISTAKE 3 – NOT TESTING WHAT WORKS
Democrats had all the money in the world to spend on ads. They had the resources to reach everyone - to burst the media bubble. And yet, their ads weren’t breaking through.
Blue Rose tested 4,000+ ads from Harris. The best ones - the top 1% - had one thing in common: they tackled those exact key issues head-on.
Shor highlighted two examples. One ad showed Harris acknowledging that prices are too high, then laying out a plan to fix it. Another pointed out that Trump’s tax plan would raise grocery prices, while Democrats would cut middle-class taxes instead.
That’s what worked. And yet, instead of focusing on these messages, Democrats spread themselves thin with other priorities: democracy, the environment, abortion.
Voters didn’t care. They cared about their wallets. And Republicans - the same who have been crusading against empathy - actually understood them better. Oh, the irony.
Yes, the greatest lessons come from failure - especially when someone else is doing the failing. Let's hope they learn from this too.
